PolityPolicy
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India, in Numbers
PolityPolicy · 2021–2026

What If International Crude Cost Decided Petrol Pump Prices

If Indian petrol simply tracked global crude — as everyone on the internet insists it should — here's the ride you'd have taken. And here's the far steadier one you actually got.

Avg Shield · Per Litre
Days You Paid Less
Crude-Linked Peak
SCROLL — SEE HOW A LITRE IS BUILT
The Build-Up

Every Litre Is Four Costs, Then Tax On Top.

Crude is only the raw ingredient. Add the oil companies' making-charge, the Centre's excise, the dealer's cut — then the state slaps VAT on the whole pile. That's your pump price.

One Litre In Delhi · A Calm Day, Early 2025

×
Then VAT Of 19.4% On The Stack Above
Pump Price
₹—
Making-Charge (Refining + Marketing)
₹16
₹12 · 5-Yr Average₹17 · Calm-Day Normal
This is the one number not printed on a receipt. We set it to ₹16 — a normal, stable margin for a firm that's neither losing money nor gouging. Slide it: in the wave below, making-charge and duties just trade places — the total, and your shield, never move. (Full working in "How The Quant Works".)
Five Years, In Colour

The Wave Is What Crude Dictated. The Line Is What You Paid.

Each coloured band is a slice of the crude-linked price. Watch the crude band swell through 2022 while the rest holds. The teal line is what you actually paid — the space above it, up to the top of the wave, is your shield.

Tip: Drag Or Scroll The Wave Sideways To Move Through Time.

Volatility In The Fuel Market

Two lines, five years at once — no scrolling. The pink line is what the crude price dictated; the teal line is what you actually paid. Click anywhere to read the shield for that day.

If It Followed Crude
What You Paid

The Spring-2026 Spike You Barely Felt

From March to May 2026, crude tore higher — a crude-follower would have paid roughly ₹38 more a litre — yet your pump price barely moved. Here's what those three months would have cost you.

I burn litres a month
If It Followed Crude
₹—
₹—
Pick A Day

Any Date. What You Paid Vs What Crude Dictated.

Drag to any day in the five years. See the gap — and the full component-by-component split — for yourself.

If It Followed Crude
₹—
₹—
Component By Component
If It Followed Crude
The Verdict
₹—
Averaged across Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata, that's how much less you paid every litre, every day, than a pure crude-follower would have charged. This is the shield of managed deregulation.

Days each year the crude-follow price sat above what you actually paid — the days you were shielded — city by city.

Make It Personal

Your Shield, In Real Rupees.

I burn litres a month
₹—
Saved Since 2021 · ₹—

The Hidden Lever · The Rupee

The Same Barrel, A Different Bill.

Take a $/barrel of crude, priced on 9 July each year…

Under The Hood

How The Quant Works.

No black box — explained two ways. On the right: exactly how we landed on the ₹16 making-charge.

PolityPolicy · India, In Numbers
by Tushar Gupta
A companion to politypolicy.substack.com
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